![]() Update, June 7, 11 am ET: This story was originally published on June 1 and has been updated multiple times, most recently to reflect Pence’s official announcement.Watch Video: Pence introduces Trump at Westfield rallyĪ fiery Gov. It’s a hard path,” says Republican strategist Chip Felkel. ![]() The Never Trumpists are mad at him for his being part of the administration and support of an impeached, convicted insurrection promoter. “What we have seen over the last half dozen, eight years now is that Donald Trump is a more durably popular figure than anybody else they’ve been able to bring down the pike,” says Johns Hopkins political scientist Daniel Schlozman.īut between that lack of a clean break with Trump and his constructive work within the administration for most of his tenure as vice president, Pence also has a difficult job appealing to Republicans who completely oppose the former president, making finding his lane all the more difficult. The decision to hold back on more aggressive attacks on Trump could be driven by the enduring advantage he still has in the party. Since then, Pence has called out Trump for endangering his family and other people at the Capitol, though he’s also stopped short of full-blown critiques on other issues like the indictment the former president faced in New York. Pence is famously known for refusing to challenge the election results on January 6 as Trump demanded ( a power Pence did not even legally have), and being a major target of the president in the rally leading up to the insurrection. A February 2023 Monmouth poll also found that 34 percent of Evangelical voters said they’d like to see Trump as the nominee, 32 percent said DeSantis, and 3 percent said Pence. In a spring focus group the Republican Accountability Project did with eight Evangelical voters, seven of the eight chose Trump as the candidate they’d support between him and Pence, while the last person abstained. Many of the socially conservative voters Pence is looking to appeal to are also still fans of Trump, and it’s uncertain if Pence will be able to change that. “Mike Pence is making a pitch that would make sense if it was 15 or 20 years ago,” says Ramer. Many Republican voters are increasingly open to these stances. Pence has called for Republicans to resist “unprincipled populists” and ideas that have taken hold since Trump’s presidency, including isolationist foreign policy and anti-democratic sentiments. The question, however, is whether a large enough contingent of Republican voters is interested in this message and whether it would differentiate him enough from a packed field. “His authenticity, experience, and conservative credentials are second to none in the field, and those things will stand out-particularly in Iowa-as the campaign unfolds,” said Michael Ricci, a communications strategist for Committed to America. ![]() As Republicans have tried to navigate the political backlash they’ve faced in being too harsh on abortion, Pence has been one of the few prominent candidates who has embraced a legal challenge of medication abortion and efforts to take it “off the market.” Pence has emphasized, too, his commitment to religious liberty and that he believes marriage is “between a man and a woman.” He’s also long held more hard-line positions on restricting abortion, and he previously opposed same-sex marriage. Already, he has said he’s open to cuts to Social Security and Medicare, and expressed robust backing for Ukraine, both positions that contrast heavily with how Trump and DeSantis have approached these topics. “The Never Trump Republicans don’t like him because he worked for Trump.” Pence has to navigate competition - and confrontation - with TrumpĪ former governor of Indiana and longtime House member prior to becoming Trump’s vice president, Pence has government experience and conservative bona fides he can lean into as part of his campaign. “With the red meat Republican base voters, they think he betrayed Trump on January 6,” says Gunner Ramer, the political director of the Republican Accountability Project, an anti-Trump GOP group that’s not affiliated with any candidates. Because of that dynamic, it’s uncertain who the supporters of his candidacy will be. Pence’s past confrontation with Trump over the latter’s attempts to undermine the 2020 election results, and his work for the administration, also make it difficult for him to win over either Trump loyalists or the narrower segment of Republicans who oppose the former president, respectively. Trump is far ahead with 54 percent support, DeSantis follows with 21 percent, and Pence comes in third with 5 percent. Currently, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average has Pence lagging Trump and DeSantis by wide margins. Whether he’ll be able to do that, however, is in doubt. ![]() All the Republicans running for president in 2024, explained ![]()
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